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Market will 'drift for the rest of summer'
July 26, 2010   16:30


As a strong July draws to a close, the earnings reporting period is just heating up, with 157 of the biggest companies in the country due to open their books in the week ahead. Standouts include Dow components Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) (Tues.), DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) (Wed.), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) (Thurs.), and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) (Friday). Also, BP (BP) reports Tuesday, the first snapshot of the company's performance during the quarter in which the oil spill began.

On the economic front, reports are due on housing, GDP, consumer confidence and the jobs market.

"It's a tug-of-war between the stronger earnings and the signs that the economy is not recovering as rapidly as it has after other recessions," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities.

Stocks managed to climb higher last week as investors welcomed better-than-expected results from UPS , Microsoft, American Express ) and others.

An easing of worries about the European debt crisis also helped fuel the run. Month-to-date, the Dow is up about 6.7% and is on track to end its best month in a year, on both a point and a percentage basis.

But the market is likely rangebound for the time being, Selkin said. 

 

On the docket

Monday: The Commerce Department's new home sales index is due after the start of trading. Sales are expected to have risen to a seasonally adjusted annual unit rate of 310,000 in June, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. That would represent a modest recovery from May.

In May, new home sales plunged 33% to a seasonally adjusted annual unit rate of 300,000, the lowest on record (which dates to 1963), amid the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit.

Tuesday: The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index is expected to have risen 4% in June versus a year ago after rising 3.8% in May.

After the start of trading, the Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence index for July. The index is expected to have fallen to 51 from 52.9 in June.

Wednesday: June durable goods orders are expected to have risen 1% after falling 0.6% in May. Orders excluding transportation are expected to have risen 0.5% after rising 1.6% in May. The Commerce Department report is due before the start of trading.

The government's weekly oil inventories report is also due in the morning, but is not usually a big market mover. In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve releases its "beige book" reading on the economy's 12 districts.

Thursday: The Department of Labor releases weekly jobless claims figures in the morning. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week is expected to have held steady at 464,000. Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, is expected to have risen to 4,550,000 from 4,487,000 in the previous week.

Friday: GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to be revised down to a 2.5% annualized rate from the initially reported 2.7% rate.

The Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing, is expected to have fallen to 56.5 in July from 59.1 in June.

The revised reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to come in at 67.5 in July, up from the previously reported 66.5.

 

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